Afghan war campaign gets mixed reviews

Published 12:31 pm Thursday, June 23, 2011

WASHINGTON (AP) — An American intelligence analysis finds tangible results from U.S. special operations raids and outreach to Afghan villages, but larger efforts such as spending billions of dollars to install a credible central government are lagging, The Associated Press has learned.

The National Intelligence Estimate gives low marks to some parts of the counterinsurgency campaign designed by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan.

President Barack Obama has nominated Petraeus to be CIA director, and he was to appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Thursday.

The intelligence assessment cites the success of the special operations programs and finds conventional troops able to hold the territory they’ve taken.

But three U.S. officials who have read the analysis and described it to the AP say it notes far less progress on developing Afghan security forces that can hold their own or on installing a government that’s able to serve its people.

Where conventional troops withdraw, the Taliban are able to infiltrate, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.

The assessment, issued in February, does not favor one strategy over another. But the information gives ammunition to those who support Vice President Joe Biden’s special operations-centered counterterrorism strategy over Petraeus’ backing of traditional counterinsurgency.

Petraeus’ approach requires greater use of conventional troops and appears to be on the way out, with Obama’s announcement Wednesday that the U.S. will withdraw up to 33,000 troops by next summer. It also is an issue that probably will confront Petraeus if he is confirmed as CIA director.

Petraeus has taken issue with previous intelligence estimates on Afghanistan, and Iraq, where he also once commanded U.S. forces, arguing they draw on information snapshots that no longer reflect the current situation, according to a U.S. official involved in some of the discussions of those earlier estimates.

The latest Afghan report was based on data from December, the official pointed out, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe high-level discussions. It also covered the security and governance situation in Pakistan.

A U.S. official close to Petraeus has claimed that his own assessments are based on different, more up-to-date data. While Petraeus has told lawmakers he plans few changes at the CIA, working to sharpen the analysis is expected to be one of his goals.

He would succeed Leon Panetta, who’s taking over as defense secretary.

The Afghan assessment says special operations night raids, combined with village-by-village security operations, have shown more lasting progress in undermining the Taliban and its influence than attempts by conventional military forces to drive out militants, the officials say. That was seen by some officials who read the report as proof the additional conventional forces Petraeus championed made little impact on the overall campaign.

Other U.S. officials argue that the success of special operations troops would not have been possible without the logistical support from conventional forces in territory that the U.S. clawed back from insurgents in large-scale operations. The estimate also says progress has been made in special operations-led counterinsurgency projects, not just raids, the officials said.

Petraeus and his predecessor, retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal, helped bring about an increase in special operations forces to roughly 10,000. That includes about 4,000 elite “direct action” troops who hunt militants, and 6,000 others, such as Green Berets and Marine special operators, who train village security forces.

As for the lack of progress in some areas noted in the analysis, it’s rare that the picture presented to the public by a general running a war matches the private advice and criticism given to him by the intelligence services.

“When you are the four-star general running the war, you are the biggest customer for CIA,” said Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss, the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee. Now, he’ll be providing that intelligence to those in the field, Chambliss said.

Chambliss predicted Petraeus would make the transition easily. The senator said Petraeus already had started working on CIA budget issues, including how to cut costs despite some large looming investments in satellite and other technical systems.

Petraeus, who has agreed to retire from the Army, has told lawmakers he’ll bring no staff with him, Chambliss said. One former CIA head, Adm. Stansfield Turner, drew the CIA staff’s scorn by installing a small group of Naval officers with him, and ex-CIA director Porter Goss, a former congressman, brought several gatekeepers who became known as the “Gosslings.”