I think I’m off to my worst start ever of picking NFL games this year. I’ve gone just 25-23 so far and that is not good enough. Usually week three is when I start to be able to gage teams and pick a little better, but I went just 9-7 last week. There is so much parity in the league now and it’s getting harder and harder to figure teams out.

Hopefully this is the week I finally get at least 10 right.

Here are the picks:

Giants at Redskins

Kirk Cousins has given the Redskins a precise passer to go along with its solid running game and I still don’t think the Giants are any good this year. Also, the Skins are playing a home game on Thursday night, which is a significant advantage.

REDSKINS 24, GIANTS 13

Packers at Bears

Aaron Rodgers said he has five letters for Packer fans – R E L A X. I tend to agree with him. The Lions played last weeks game like it was their Super Bowl and the Packers didn’t match their intensity. But Green Bay did actually play defense for the first time in a long time. They kept Calvin Johnson out of the end zone and they forced three turnovers, while holding Detroit to just 10 points on offense.

With Rodgers and Eddie Lacy, the Packer offense is bound to find its groove. But I will admit the Packers are missing James Jones and Randall Cobb has not stepped up in his absence.

PACKERS 20, BEARS 17

Bills at Texans

The Texans just don’t have enough offense to win consistently.

BILLS 23, TEXANS 17

Titans at Colts

It’s a little early for must-win games, but this is a should win game for the Colts. They don’t want to start 1-3 and they certainly don’t want to fall behind the Titans in the AFC South race.

COLTS 31, TITANS 28

Panthers at Ravens

Carolina looked really bad against the Steelers, the same team the Ravens humiliated two weeks ago.

RAVENS 17, PANTHERS 14

Lions at Jets

The Jets came close to beating the Packers and Bears, but their offense lacks a lot of punch without a healthy Eric Decker. I think Matt Stafford will have a bounce-back week after he played below average against a below average Green Bay defense.

LIONS 31, JETS 20

Bucs at Steelers

The Bucs are sliding into the no-pick zone. Don’t pick them until they prove they can win a game.

STEELERS 27, BUCS 17

Dolphins at Raiders

The Raiders are also in the no-pick zone.

DOLPHINS 28, RAIDERS 17

Jaguars at Chargers

Guess what? The Jags have been in the no-pick zone for at least two years.

CHARGERS 38, JAGUARS 13

Falcons at Vikings

Call me crazy, but I think the recipe is set for the Vikings to win this game. The Falcons’ offense tends to struggle outdoors on the road and the Atlanta defense is nothing special. Teddy Bridgewater is getting his first start at home and the Minnesota crowd will be fired up. We haven’t heard about Adrian Peterson much this week and that distraction is mostly gone.

But my biggest reason for picking the Vikings is the motivation they’ll have. I was reading the St. Paul Pioneer Press on Sunday and almost every writer on their staff had ruled this season as a loss. One writer was even talking about who the Vikings should take in April’s NFL Draft.

I’ve got to believe the Vikings will catch wind of that doubt and it will light a fire under them. At least for one week.

VIKINGS 27, FALCONS 24

Eagles at 49ers

Like I said earlier, there are no must-wins in week four, but the 49ers need to start playing better football. They were careless with the ball in a loss to the Bears and they committed several foolish and costly penalties against the Cardinals.

The Eagles have been living off a little luck and a lot of big plays.

49ERS 21, EAGLES 17

Saints at Cowboys

Last week I wanted to pick a let-down loss for the Cowboys and it almost happened. I’m definitely picking it this week. But I will say if the Cowboys can rattle off a third straight win, they must be taken seriously as a playoff contender.

SAINTS 34, COWBOYS 31

Patriots at Chiefs

This could be a dangerous game for the Pats, playing on a Monday night in KC, which is a tough place to play and Tom Brady has struggled early on.

CHIEFS 24, PATRIOTS 21

Last week: 9-7; overall: 25-23