By Mark Steil

MPR.org/90.1 FM

Minnesota poultry farmers have so far avoided a repeat of the 2015 avian flu epidemic that decimated local flocks. But the disease’s recent spread in Europe and Asia is making producers and scientists nervous.

The World Health Organization is on “high alert” because the bird flu virus has been found in 40 nations around the world since last fall and is spreading rapidly. One of the worst hit countries, South Korea, lost nearly 20 percent of its chickens to the disease.

The spring waterfowl migration will increase the risk of the virus landing back in Minnesota, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

The 2015 outbreaks devastated more than 100 Minnesota farms and cost the state economy more than $500 million. If the disease were to return, “there’s no reason I see why we wouldn’t have the same potential for a very large poultry related outbreak in the Upper Midwest again,” said Osterholm.

The unusually large number of bird flu virus strains in circulation are complicating public health efforts to stay on top of outbreaks, a situation Osterholm called unprecedented.

The H5 virus family that struck Minnesota two years ago is the most widespread now. But there’s also an H7 cluster in China that Osterholm says is especially worrisome since it’s also infected hundreds of humans in addition to birds.

“About 30 to 35 percent of the people who are developing this H7N9 infection are dying,” said Osterholm. Experts believe the virus has been spreading to people from birds, but not from person to person. If human-to-human transmission flares, it could produce an influenza pandemic, he added.

So far, the U.S. is avoiding the latest bird flu outbreaks. But earlier this month a wild duck in Montana tested positive for avian influenza.

That’s raised concern for poultry producers, including Glen Taylor, owner of the Minnesota Timberwolves NBA franchise and Rembrandt Foods, one of the nation’s largest egg producers. He said he and his people are closely watching what’s happening around the world.

Rembrandt Foods lost more than 8 million chickens in the 2015 bird flu outbreak, more than half its poultry population. Although he won’t give a dollar figure, “financially, it’s the biggest, by far, hit that I have ever taken on anything,” said Taylor.

WATT Global Media, the publisher of a poultry trade magazine, reported that influenza losses dropped Rembrandt from third largest U.S. egg producer to sixth. The company laid off more than 200 workers in 2015.

Now, nearly two years later, bird flu may be creating opportunity for the company. South Korea poultry producers have been hit hard and the country wants to import eggs.

Rembrandt is among the U.S. companies making a bid. But with bird flu threatening to circle the globe, there are still nagging uncertainties left over from the 2015 outbreak.

Like most poultry producers, Taylor said it’s still unclear exactly how the virus found its way into the Rembrandt barns in 2015. “We have our own ideas how it traveled,” he added, “but we don’t have any proof.”

The company has taken steps to keep any new virus out. Supply trucks that may visit other poultry farms are strictly controlled. Rembrandt employees make sure they stop at an entrance gate, and unload there if possible.

Poultry farmers and government response teams have done a good job ramping up biosecurity and other measures to combat the avian influenza virus, said Steve Olson, who heads both turkey and chicken trade groups in Minnesota. A quick response to a bird flu outbreak will be key to limiting its spread, he added.

The state is much better prepared than two years ago for a return of the virus, but the poultry industry hopes those defenses go untested, Olson said.

“We’ve got more emergency response equipment in the state to be able to react quicker,” said Olson. “There are processes that have been streamlined. I think that’s going to help the situation overall.”