Signs point to a wetter winter than normal for southern Minnesota, according to weather experts.

But, that’s as certain as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center gets in its winter outlook updated on Thursday.

Indicators “slightly favor” a wetter winter, the outlook says. “This does not imply that this winter will be snowier-than-normal.”

Whether the region will be more often pelted with rain or covered with snow is up in the air because it has “equal chances” of being warmer or colder than usual.

A weak La Niña is likely this winter and the last time that happened was  2011-12. Austin had less than 17 inches of total snowfall by the end of February in 2012, according to National Weather Service records.

A La Niña is when there are below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central Equatorial Pacific, according to NOAA.

“While there was a strong signal for colder-than-normal temperatures during La Niña winters prior to 1985, this climate signal has become far less reliable since then,” the outlook says. “Over the past 15 years, there has not been a trend for either warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal winter temperatures in our area.”

Looking nationally, wetter-than normal conditions are more likely across much of the northern United States while drier-than-normal conditions are more likely in the South.

The Farmer’s Almanac is forecasting moderate snowfall, but not as harsh as usual.

So, when will Austin flood it’s outdoor ice rinks? Traditionally, the city tries to get that done before Christmas.

The first official day of winter is Thursday, Dec. 21, the winter solstice.