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By Dana Ferguson

On a sunny Tuesday morning, Republican state Senate candidate Kathleen Fowke walked door-to-door in a neighborhood along the shores of Lake Minnetonka.

The tree-lined roads by the water were quiet but when she knocked on a door she got a reminder that this is hotly contested territory.

“You’re in my YouTube all the time,” said the man inside — a reminder of the ads targeting voters here.

The special election for Minnesota Senate District 45 could be the state’s most expensive legislative race ever — and the key to winning control of the chamber. Former state Sen. Kelly Morrison, a Democrat, stepped down from the seat in June to run for the U.S. House of Representatives.

Democrats have held the trifecta — the House, Senate and governor’s office all in their control — at the Capitol for two years. They’ve used the legislative majorities to boost state funding for affordable housing and public schools, pass new legal protections for patients who seek or provide abortion or gender-affirming care and green light a broad swath of other DFL priorities.

Now, Republicans see a chance to curb the progressive trend. They’re just a few seats behind in the state House. And the Senate is tied 33-33. The result in the Senate special election will determine whether Republicans break up DFL control at the Capitol or let it stand for another two years.

Campaign finance reports released last month show there’s been nearly $450,000 in independent spending so far in the winner-take-the-majority contest.

The GOP wants to slow state spending and focus on the economy overall. Fowke, a real estate agent, says that while voters don’t always know about the work state lawmakers do, what she does hear about from them is money.

“It’s basically affordability, and they can’t afford, you know, just to go to the grocery store anymore,” Fowke said. “Taxes are high. Inflation is high. They need to find a way to help lower the costs of everything all around them.”

Republicans promise to cut taxes, reduce state spending and curb fraud and abuse in state programs.

“With one-party, Democrat control, it was easy just to push through partisan policy and partisan priorities,” House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, said. “What we want to do is just bring all voices back and still work hard for Minnesotans, but we want to be able to make it more cost-effective to live here.”

Democrats say they’re addressing the cost of living — with laws requiring companies to offer paid time off for illness, laws to contain health care cost increases and new money to provide school lunches cost-free to families of all incomes.

“They trust the Democrats are going to do more for their economic well being, whereas what they hear from Republicans is, ‘Oh, we have to give more tax cuts to corporations,’” House Speaker Melissa Hortman, DFL-Brooklyn Park, said.

Their candidate facing Fowke is civil engineer Ann Johnson Stewart. She’s knocking on doors too, telling people she stands for maintaining legal protections for abortion in the state.

“One of the reasons I’m running is to make sure we can continue on that track,” she said. “The stakes are high. Whoever wins this election will determine the majority in the Senate, and will determine if the DFL can continue to move forward with its policies and progress.”

She said she hopes Democrats will work now on carbon-free energy sources, local infrastructure, expanding mental health care and reducing gun violence.

Both Fowke and Johnson Stewart said they hope to keep the conversations focused on what’s going on in their district. But they know that’s a big ask in a presidential election year.

Andrew Karch, a political science professor at the University of Minnesota, said candidates face an uphill battle getting voters to pay attention to state issues.

“There’s a real tendency for these races to sort of fly beneath the radar,” Karch said.

And many voters don’t focus on state issues.

“I think politics in Minnesota specifically may have been more distinctive a generation ago than they are today,” he said. “State and local politicians are increasingly being asked to comment on issues that we might think of as national.”