Jon Boehlke is bucking a national trend.

He’s building a new home.

The 29-year-old Hormel employee moved to Austin a little more than a month ago and broke ground on a custom-made house around the same time, but recent statistics show that new home construction is down throughout Austin, the county and the country.

Between 2007 and 2008, the number of permits issued for privately owned housing construction in the U.S. dropped by 35 percent.

That trend has continued the last two years — to date, construction is down roughly 42 percent in that period.

Austin is reflecting this as well, with the three lowest totals for new housing permits this decade coming, not surprisingly, in the past three years.

And through July, 2009 is sitting at a sluggish four permits.

In Mower County, permits went from a high this decade of 57 in 2002 to a low of 17 last year. So far in 2009, the county sits at 12.

So why is new home construction slowing down so much? Of course, the implosion of the national economy and housing market is a big and well-documented reason. But there are other factors at play as well.

Away from country

living?

It’s well known that the U.S. has been in a recession since late 2007, with the economic crisis most often linked to a collapse of the housing market.

Risky lending practices and bad mortgages caught up with investors and homeowners, triggering a large number of foreclosures, layoffs and bankruptcies across the nation.

Naturally, the market turmoil has put a dent in home sales and construction almost everywhere.

And while local officials are quick to point toward the recession as reason one for stagnant construction in Austin and Mower County, there are other unique factors to consider.

State demographer Tom Gillaspy said as the state ages — a population trend occurring all over the world — there could be less people interested in buying or building rural homes.

That’s because older citizens generally want easy access to hospitals and other services, as well as less land to take care of — things not often available out in the country.

“You’re probably not going to see the mansion out on the prairie (as often),” Gillaspy said.

Angie Knish, the county planning and zoning director, said she thinks that could very well be the case in Mower and surrounding areas.

And she can see herself becoming an example.

Knish currently lives in Waseca with two high-school aged children. Though she grew up on a farm, Knish said if she moves when she becomes an empty nester, it will likely be toward an urban area in an effort to land a convenient home.

“I think a lot of Baby Boomers getting older are thinking the same thing,” she said.

Gillaspy said that more and more people like Knish will be empty nesters in coming years. Because of this, the demographer said that within a decade, more than half of the people living alone in Minnesota will be 55 or older.

And they’re not as likely to want rural properties.

“I think it was highly desirable,” Knish said of living in the country, “but less so now.”

Less city growth?

So if more people are interested in moving toward urban areas, does that mean a lot of home construction in cities?

Not necessarily.

As the global aging occurs, many places are seeing stagnant or declining population growth rates.

In the U.S., there is some growth, Gillaspy notes, but not nearly at the rate of the Baby Boomer generation, and in coming decades the growth rate is only expected to decrease more.

With populations not expected to increase that quickly and because some areas have excess housing stock due to the housing boom earlier this decade, cities won’t necessarily grow — which is exactly what Gillaspy expects.

“The outward expansion of big cities will probably stop,” he said.

Craig Hoium, the community development director in Austin, said he noticed the housing boom and subsequent problems in nearby cities like Owatonna and Rochester.

In those cities, Hoium said large numbers of homes were built earlier this decade because of speculative growth.

But when the market began to crumble, properties sat or became vacant — in Rochester, Hoium said there were at least 1,000 such homes in recent years.

Austin did not do as much speculative building in the past few years, which is part of the reason for the drop in permits but also a blessing in disguise.

“We do have a downturn, but we’re not set here with hundreds of (empty) homes,” Hoium said. “(I think we’re) in a little better position now that the market has bottomed out.”

On the rebound?

Despite all the turmoil, both the housing market and the national economy could be on the way back up.

Recent reports say the recession could be over or nearly over, and there is some optimism locally that new home construction could rise again soon.

“I think you’ll see an upswing again,” Hoium said.

In the county, Knish projects a “slow rebound” for the housing market.

“I think it will (recover), because the economy will rebound,” she said.

Lance Pogones, a partner with the Turtle Creek Estates company putting up Boehlke’s home, said he too sees a recovery coming.

“It think it’ll take a while, but the demand is there again and so is the interest,” he said.

Time to buy or build?

If the housing market is in fact on its way back, it is in part due to people like Boehlke and Tony Bennett.

Bennett, a 39-year-old employee at Robert’s Specialty Company in Austin, moved into his newly built home a little more than a year ago.

Custom made and located near the Jay C. Hormel Nature Center, Bennett said the home has been great.

He also said he has no regrets starting the project at the front end of the recession, in December 2007.

“Quite frankly, things hadn’t gotten as bad when I started,” he said.

Boehlke’s case is different. His home started going up during what could be the tail end of the housing slump — and possibly its low point.

But like Bennett, he said he and his wife didn’t hesitate to start building the house.

“We were either going to buy or build,” he said. “Now is a good time for anyone to get a house.”

With low interest rates in place, Boehlke may very well be right. But he and other new homeowners are hoping that the economy stabilizes so their properties can grow in value.

The 29-year-old knows what he’s doing is less common these days — his mom is a real estate agent and he said they look at trends together — but he said he’s comfortable with his decision.

And when his new house is completed — likely by mid-January — Boehlke said he is eager to move in.