Fed’s 3rd hike this year expected despite rising trade risks

Published 8:26 am Wednesday, September 26, 2018

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is set this week to raise interest rates for a third time this year to prevent the economy from growing too fast. But with President Donald Trump’s trade fights posing a risk to the U.S. economy, the Fed may soon be ready to slow its hikes.

Many analysts expect the economy to weaken next year, in part from the effects of the conflicts Trump has pursued with China, Canada, Europe and other trading partners. The tariffs and counter-tariffs that have been imposed on imports and exports is having the effect of raising prices for key goods and supplies and potentially slowing growth.

An economic slowdown would likely lead the Fed to throttle back on its rate increases to avoid stifling growth. In that scenario, it might raise rates only twice in 2019 and then retreat to the sidelines to see how the economy fares.

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Compounding the effects of the tariffs and retaliatory tariffs resulting from Trump’s trade war, other factors could slow growth next year.