Ahead of Sunday’s 91st Academy Awards, Associated Press Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony that has few sure things.

Best Picture

The Nominees: “Black Panther,” ‘’BlacKkKlansman,” ‘’Bohemian Rhapsody,” ‘’The Favourite,” ‘’Green Book,” “Roma,” ‘’A Star Is Born,” “Vice”

BAHR

Will Win: “Roma”

Should Win: “A Star Is Born”

Not to go all Sean Penn here, but “A Star Is Born” really should win best picture, even though it probably won’t. “Roma” is wonderful, but I fear it’s one of those films that won’t be re-watched or even talked about much 5 or 10 years from now, whereas “A Star Is Born” is not only great, but feels like a classic already. And that’s something special.

COYLE

Will Win: “Roma”

Should Win: “Black Panther”

The guild wins, which usually point the way, have been all over the map making this a hard one to call. The momentum is with “Roma” thanks, in part, to an all-out blitz of a campaign from Netflix (which has eyes for an Oscar the way Jackson Maine wants another look at Ally) and because of, well, it’s a fairly astonishing movie. But “Black Panther” and the response it provoked epitomized the cultural height of movies, something some doubted was still possible. Wakanda for Feb. 24.

Best Actress

The Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”; Glenn Close, “The Wife”; Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”; Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”; Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

BAHR

Will Win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Should Win: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

The conventional wisdom is that Glenn Close is overdue for an Oscar. Thankfully, she’s really wonderful in “The Wife,” as the dutifully supportive spouse of a newly-minted Nobel-winning writer. A “career Oscar” isn’t a bad sentiment and definitely not a “pity Oscar.” But love definitely has no limits when it comes to my own appreciation of Olivia Colman’s performance as Queen Anne in “The Favourite,” which could get passed over because Colman hasn’t been a fixture on the schmooze circuit (she was busy shooting “The Crown”! which is a totally reasonable excuse).

COYLE

Will Win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Should Win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”

There’s not a bad choice in the bunch and many more, too, that didn’t make the cut. There may be room here for an upset from Colman, whose Queen Anne was a delirious heap of emotions. Surely there will be some voters who’d like to see Colman thank “my bitches” again at the Oscars. But it feels like this belongs to Close whose subtle performance in “The Wife” overflows with the kind of intricacy that can go (and, in Close’s case, often has gone) overlooked at the Academy Awards.

Best Actor

The Nominees: Christian Bale, “Vice”; Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”; Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”; Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”; Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

BAHR

Will Win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Should Win: Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”

That Rami Malek somehow became the consensus choice here still kind of baffles me, especially when there’s Bradley Cooper giving the performance of a lifetime as sad, sweet, awful and tragic Jackson Maine. He felt realer than the sanitized Freddie Mercury of “Bohemian Rhapsody,” that’s for sure.

COYLE

Will Win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Should Win: Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”

In an Oscars full of question marks, Malek’s win seems the most assured. His performance is the kind of showstopper that Oscar voters love. (Malek chews so much scenery they gave him extra teeth.) But another biopic, Julian Schnabel’s “At Eternity’s Gate,” featured a far more searching and deeply felt performance in Dafoe’s Vincent Van Gogh. For the second year straight, Dafoe (a nominee in 2018 for “The Florida Project”) won’t win an Oscar he deserves.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Amy Adams, “Vice”; Marina de Tavira, “Roma”; Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”; Emma Stone, “The Favourite”; Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

BAHR

Will Win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Should Win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Sometimes will and should match up, and it definitely does for Regina King’s heart-wrenching turn as Sharon Rivers, protective and supportive mother and almost grandmother who will do whatever it takes to keep her daughter’s family intact. She is the foundation and beating heart of “If Beale Street Could Talk.”

COYLE

Will Win: Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Should Win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Regina King is the favorite and deservedly so, but there’s a sneaky chance for an upset here. King wasn’t nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, whose picks often correlate to the Oscars. That could leave open a window for Rachel Weisz, who won at the British Academy Film Awards. The love for “The Favourite” and its terrific cast could bubble up in a few categories, including this one.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”; Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”; Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”; Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”; Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

BAHR

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Should Win: Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”

At this point Mahershala Ali is the only safe way for “Green Book”-loving academy members to give the film an award, and it won’t be undeserved. Ali brings dignified complexity to the fascinating character of Dr. Don Shirley, but, much like “The Favourite,” it’s really a co-lead anyway. And is there a single image that can conjure up as many emotions as seeing a teary-eyed Sam Elliott backing out of the driveway where he’s just dropped off his troubled half-brother off at home for what could be the last time? It’s a perfect supporting performance.

COYLE

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Should Win: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

An unheralded avenue for a successful Oscar campaign, if you can pull it off, is starring concurrently in HBO’s “True Detective.” Just as Matthew McConaughey did a few years ago before winning for “Dallas Buyers Club,” Mahershala Ali is proving every Sunday how good he is. A win for Ali, two years after he took home the same Oscar for “Moonlight” (a, uh, different movie than “Green Book”) would be something to applaud. But so would an Oscar for Richard E. Grant, a brilliant character actor who has enjoyed the Oscar spotlight more than anyone.