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BELLEAIR BEACH, Fla. — Milton rapidly strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane Monday in the Gulf of Mexico on a path toward Florida, threatening a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay, leading to evacuation orders and long gas lines, and lending more urgency to the cleanup from Hurricane Helene, which swamped the same stretch of coastline less than two weeks ago.

A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, which expected to get sideswiped, and much of Florida’s west coast was under hurricane and storm surge watches. Florida’s Lake Okeechobee, which often floods during intense storms, was also under a hurricane watch.
“This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said at a news conference. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.”

The compact Milton intensified quickly Monday and was expected to become a large hurricane over the eastern Gulf. It had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (257 kph), the National Hurricane Center said. The storm’s center was about 130 miles (210 kilometers) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 720 miles (1,160 kilometers) southwest of Tampa at midday Monday, moving east-southeast at 9 mph (15 kph).

Its center could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area, and it could remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains.

Forecasters warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay and said flash and river flooding could result from 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) in places.

The Tampa Bay area is still rebounding from Helene and its powerful surge. Twelve people died, with the worst damage along a string of barrier islands from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday that it was imperative that messes from Helene be cleared ahead of Milton’s arrival so they don’t become projectiles. More than 300 vehicles picked up debris Sunday but encountered a locked landfill gate when they tried to drop it off. State troopers used a rope tied to a pickup truck and busted it open, DeSantis said.

“We don’t have time for bureaucracy and red tape,” DeSantis said.

‘It’s going to be flying missiles’

Lifeguards in Pinellas County, on the peninsula that forms Tampa Bay, removed beach chairs and other items that could take flight in strong winds. Elsewhere, stoves, chairs, refrigerators and kitchen tables waited in heaps to be picked up.
Sarah Steslicki, who lives in Belleair Beach, said she was frustrated more debris hadn’t been collected sooner.

“They’ve screwed around and haven’t picked the debris up, and now they’re scrambling to get it picked up,” Steslicki said Monday morning. “If this one does hit, it’s going to be flying missiles. Stuff’s going to be floating and flying in the air.”
Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, ordered evacuations for areas adjacent to Tampa Bay and for all mobile and manufactured homes by Tuesday night.

“Yes, this stinks. We know that, and it comes on the heels of where a lot of us are still recovering from Hurricane Helene,” Sheriff Chad Chronister said. “But if you safeguard your families, you will be alive.”
Reluctance to evacuate

Milton’s approach stirred memories of 2017’s Hurricane Irma, when about 7 million people were urged to evacuate Florida in an exodus that jammed freeways and clogged gas stations. Some people who left vowed never to evacuate again.

By Monday morning, some gas stations in the Tampa area had already run out of gas. Fuel continued to arrive in Florida, and the state had amassed hundreds of thousands of gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel, with much more on the way, DeSantis said.

Even though Tanya Marunchak’s Belleair Beach home was flooded with more than 4 feet (1.2 meters) of water from Helene, she and her husband were unsure Monday morning if they should evacuate. She wanted to leave, but her husband thought their three-story home was sturdy enough to withstand Milton.

“We lost all our cars, all our furniture; the first floor was completely destroyed,” Marunchak said. “This is the oddest weather predicament that there has ever been.”

If residents don’t evacuate, it could put first responders in jeopardy or make rescues impossible: “If you remain there, you could die and my men and women could die trying to rescue you,” Hillsborough Fire Rescue Chief Jason Dougherty said.
Why did Milton intensify so fast?

Milton’s intensification in wind speed by 92 mph (148 kph) in 24 hours trails only those of Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007. One reason Milton strengthened so rapidly is its small size, with a “pinhole eye,” just like Wilma’s, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

The storm likely will have to go through what’s called an eyewall replacement cycle, a natural process that forms a new eye and expands the storm in size but weakens its wind speeds, Klotzbach said.

The Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm right now, so “the fuel is just there,” and Milton probably went over an extra-warm eddy that helped goose it further, said University of Albany hurricane scientist Kristen Corbosiero.

The hurricane center forecasts a slight weakening before landfall in Florida. The last hurricane to be a Category 5 at landfall in the mainland U.S. was Michael in 2018.

Cancellations in Florida and Mexico
The University of Central Florida in Orlando said it would close midweek, but Walt Disney World said it was operating normally for the time being. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers planned to move operations to the New Orleans area for the rest of the week leading to Sunday’s NFL game against the Saints, and the Tampa Bay Lightning’s NHL game Monday against the Nashville Predators was canceled.

All road tolls were suspended in western central Florida. The St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said it would close after the last flight Tuesday, and Tampa International Airport said it planned to halt airline and cargo flights starting Tuesday morning.

All classes and school activities in Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, closed Monday through Wednesday, and schools were being converted into shelters. Officials in Tampa freed city garages to residents hoping to protect their cars from flooding.

The coastal Mexican state of Yucatan canceled classes along the coast after forecasters predicted Milton would brush the northern part of the state. The cancellations included its most heavily populated Gulf coast cities, like Progreso; the capital, Merida; and the natural protected area of Celestun, known for its flamingoes.

It has been two decades since so many storms crisscrossed Florida in such a short period of time. In 2004, an unprecedented five storms struck Florida within six weeks, including three hurricanes that pummeled central Florida.

Although Tampa hasn’t been hit directly by a hurricane in over a century, other parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast are recovering from such storms in the past two years. The Fort Myers area in southwest Florida is still rebuilding from Hurricane Ian, which caused $112 billion in damage in 2022.

Three hurricanes have thrashed Florida’s Big Bend region in just 13 months, including Helene.
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Schneider reported from Orlando. Associated Press writers Freida Frisaro in Fort Lauderdale, Seth Borenstein in Washington and Brendan Farrington in Tallahassee contributed to this report